So much for Virtual Chases. I’m planning to head out to the plains for a few days to try chasing some marginal setups. Not sure if I’ll be able to post a forecast ahead of each day, but I’ll start with my first opportunity this Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Target: Northeast Wyoming<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n With all the frustrations of a flimsy severe weather pattern setting in for the latter half of May, it still looks like there will be isolated\/conditional opportunities in the northern plains and elsewhere as a trough moves onshore this weekend and starts cutting off in the southwest early in the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Sunday afternoon\/evening, per guidance from NAM, I’m looking at a target in northeastern Wyoming as 40-50 kts of southwest H5 flow moves in over an area of low to mid 50 dew points advects around a consolidating surface low in that target area. A narrow, meridional zone of 1500-2000 j\/kg CAPE will develop along the eastern Wyoming border with the CAP weak or open by mid to late afternoon in the northern portion of this ribbon. Today’s 12Z NAM forecasts a focal point for convection in this area by 00Z with that area potentially ingesting 100-150 m2\/s2 0-1km SRH. Mixed layer LCLs are in the 1500 meter range and heighten quickly the further south you go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If this plays out well, I might hope to see an isolated, high-based supercell drifting slowly into South Dakota. I have no expectations of anything tornadic with this setup. And if today’s 06Z GFS has its way, then I can expect a bust with maybe some elevated showers in South Dakota (GFS keeps surface moisture about a hundred miles further east under stronger capping). 00Z ECMWF agrees better with NAM on placement of moisture and location of precipitation, so I hope that agreement favors my focus on NAM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This will be my first 2014 chase day during a week of very iffy conditions. I’m definitely concerned that I’m setting myself up for a series of busts, but also excited to take on the challenge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" So much for Virtual Chases. I’m planning to head out to the plains for a few days to try chasing some marginal setups. Not sure if I’ll be able to post a forecast ahead of each day, but I’ll start with my first opportunity this Sunday. Target: Northeast Wyoming With all the frustrations of a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[27,50],"class_list":["post-898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasting","tag-forecasting","tag-storm-chasing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/898","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=898"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/898\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":899,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/898\/revisions\/899"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/perezmedia.net\/ceruleanarc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}